I remember talking to my son a few years ago about the catastrophes of plague, particularly the bubonic plague, or "Black Death", that occurred in approximately 1350 AD. The reports of 50 million deaths in the historical texts are not exaggerated - in fact, some believe that approximately 200 million people perished from the Black Death in total. I personally believe the figures were higher considering the lack of efficient record keeping at the time.
We hypothesised about another outbreak of bubonic plague in the future but while it is possible, there are clear treatments to now manage outbreaks. As long as it is caught early and antibiotics are administered, survival rate is high. We also know the bubonic plague is transmitted through fleas from animal-to-human transfer or to people who are bitten/scratched by an infected animal. The bubonic plague also doesn't transfer readily from person to person and does not survive well in sunlight.
We then talked about the possibilities of some kind of outbreak in the future, considering overpopulation, living standards and differing standards of health care and hygiene available in different countries and came to the conclusion that it was inevitable that something would emerge that would be difficult to eradicate for some time, given recent historical evidence of disease management. The World Health Organisation "warned in its 2007 report that infectious diseases are emerging at a rate that has not been seen before". The frequency of travel, the density of populations and the rising incidence of people coming into contact with wild animals creates the perfect storm for emerging diseases to spread rapidly, increasing the incidence of global pandemics.
Enter Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). COVID-19 was first identified in November 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei, China. "As of 18 July, 2020 more than 14 million cases have been reported across 188 countries and territories, resulting in more than 600,000 deaths. More than 7.81 million people have recovered".
Unlike the bubonic plague, COVID-19 is primarily spread by human contact. It is possible to spread COVID-19 via droplets caused by sneezing, coughing and merely talking. It is possible for these droplets to contaminate surfaces for long periods of time and tiny droplets to remain suspended in the air for longer periods of time than previously thought. Preventative measures include social distancing, frequent hand washing and the habitual use of hand sanitiser, along with the recommended face mask.
Unfortunately, because of the ease of transmission and the various methods each country has formulated to deal with the pandemic, this has resulted in differing outcomes. Some countries, such as Taiwan and Iceland, took COVID-19 extremely seriously, locked down immediately and adopted a strategy of cooperation with other organisations. Others have not fared so well.
The United States is an example of how things can go wrong during a pandemic when you have a dysfunctional government, infrastructure that is lacking, lack of communication in general between opposing political parties and lack of cohesion in leadership when it came to simple directives and management of the disease. The decisions and their outcomes have come from a political perspective rather than medical and scientific. "As of 18 July, 2020 in the United States, COVID-19 cases totalled 3,770,012 people. COVID-19 deaths totalled 142,064. Total amount of COVID-19 cases recovered 1,741,233 people". The United States has approximately 24 percent of the total number of deaths worldwide.
Despite the number of recoveries, according to The World Health Organisation there is no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 are now immune. Indeed, the 'herd immunity' theory has already been suggested and tested out in a number of populations with disastrous results. Trying to reach any kind of result for so-called herd immunity would likely be costly, not only in monetary terms, but in terms of the number of lives that would be lost - just to prove a point. No vaccine exists and will almost certainly not exist for at least another 18 months. Because of misleading information, some people mistakenly believe that once they have had COVID-19 and have recovered, they are now resistant to re-infection. This is not the case, as we now know with cases of re-infection worldwide being reported.
Our only solutions at this point are a vaccine, social distancing, practicing correct sanitisation procedures, self-isolation and quarantining the infected. Working together is what is required for more positive outcomes. Politicising COVID-19 will only risk more lives and inflame the many underlying issues bubbling away under the surface and triggered by the extreme frustration and oppression that many people are suffering worldwide - one of which has come to the fore, as documented during the recent BLM protests.
What I am seeing at present from some governments is a return to austerity to try to manage the crisis from an economic perspective. This is a mistake. This does not take into account the social and democratic perspective - and the outcomes of increasing the risk to our most vulnerable people in preference to catering to the wealth of the few and to business interests.
COVID-19 is undoubtedly bringing into the light the many cracks in our systems that have been left to slowly corrode over many decades. In one way this is a good thing, as it becomes more likely to be noticed and reported. In another way, it is not - as many more people are going to suffer before something positive will be done to implement any changes and move forward towards more workable structures for the many, not just the few.
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