On Chocolate Cake and Winning

I can’t speak for anybody else, but for me Labor defeating the Coalition in the 2025 election in a landslide with the added bonus of Peter Dutton losing his seat to Ali France - was as delicious as a double-layered chocolate cake smothered in golden sparkles & winning sprinkles.

A 94-seat victory for Labor was both empowering and surprising. There was a period of time in 2024 where Dutton was looking both confident and electable - but this was before the campaign cycle - and Dutton could conveniently or inadvertently be inadequate and be covered by the media for almost any slight. He could also disappear from view for days on end when he slipped up or stoked the fires of yet another culture war - only to reappear when the dust had settled and the media cycle had moved on to “look over there” at Labor.

Dutton had little experience at constantly being in the spotlight - which as the leader of the opposition and hopeful for Australia’s next Prime Minister - was mandatory now as it was imperative for the entire country to take a good look at what was on offer in the form of leadership potential and policies pertaining to solutions to the immediate issues that were on voter’s minds. These issues did not include some unrelatable and dubious policies on nuclear energy that would likely be years in the making. They were more closely associated with what the coalition had been harping about for three years in opposition - cost of living, electricity bills and the housing crisis. What was the coalition going to do about that?

Unfortunately for Dutton and the coalition, their immediate policies were thin on the ground and were for the majority of the time going to “be released soon”… along with any costings. There was no adequate detail - ironic considering that “detail” had been the very thing Dutton had demanded from Labor for the entirety of the Voice to Parliament campaign. The 11th-hour costings release and the poor budget reply via Angus Taylor were not well received and were picked apart by economists and even some journalists who had been supportive of Dutton and the coalition in the past.

Also unfortunately for Dutton, he doesn’t do well in the spotlight. For most of his career, Dutton has been able to work without too much scrutiny and has been used to remaining unchallenged despite the many shortcomings in his various ministerial positions while in government. His once successful strategy of division and distraction while failing to provide real answers to questions and avoiding accountability -

was never going to pass the pub test once the election cycle began and it became mandatory to be everywhere to capitlise on leadership self-promotion and to be available to answer media questions to instil a sense of confidence in the community regarding his ability to lead the nation. In my opinion, Dutton was unprepared and ill-informed as to his campaign strategy as well as his policies.

It was also difficult for Dutton to shake off the tough-guy image of the last two decades where he had well and truly earned the titles of “bully” and “thug”. His fear mongering with regard to national security and China, his covert and overt racist dog whistling, his almost inhuman stance on asylum seekers and his inability to create a personable image despite the constant turd tinselling via the media would remain a constant bridge too far for many in the electorate. His comments regarding Trump, the Trump implosion in the United States and the comparisons with “government efficiency policies” were difficult for him to navigate. Putting Jacinta Price into the position of shadow minister for government efficiency, a position that was created especially for her - and her subsequent foghorning of making Australia great again - more than likely made his leadership bid look even more precarious.

In the end it came down to strategy, character and campaign ability. Albanese proved to be far superior in every aspect.

The coalition’s loss was devastating - and should be a defining moment for both parties. According to the abc Labor’s feat has not been achieved as an incumbent party since 1966. Labor also lost no seats. As a sitting government it is remarkable. The last seat, Calwell, now has been declared for Labor which takes the seat count to 94. Seven seats were picked up by Labor in Queensland - an unthinkable task in the previous election in 2022 - and now in 2025 a potent message to the new Queensland LNP state government. In Tasmania all but one federal seat went to Labor. Labor had 33 seats as their priority focus for the election. Only one of them didn’t go to Labor.

This was not only a team win for Labor, it was Albanese’s win. As much as the right-wing media like to play down Albanese’s leadership potential and spitefully proclaim that Labor haven’t achieved anything in the last three years - Albanese is seen as the safer alternative and the leader most likely to successfully navigate the next tumultuous term with the likes of a Trump world trade upheaval and increasing uncertainty in foreign policy and international relationships. Labor have indeed achieved far more in their first term than has been acknowledged by the media. They will go on now to cement their position and legislation with regard to renewables - and a clear social commitment with regard to healthcare, education and housing.

In the meantime, the off-again on-again coalition opposition can only look on, decimated in numbers and psychologically damaged. The shenanigans of the last two weeks with regard to Ley’s bee’s-dick victory against Angus Taylor and his newest National recruit, potential new Liberal deputy dawg, Jacinta Price - has further splintered the relationship between the Nationals, the LNP and the Liberals.

At the time of writing this, the so-called agreement between the Liberals and the Nationals is only partially resolved - and the band may be getting back together… but only because the Nationals have realised the folly of their existential crisis and going it alone..

.. the total number of seats the Nationals have won in both the Senate and The House without the benefit of the Coalition and including the defection of Jacinta Price will render them a minor party. They will lose the benefits that being in a coalition has to offer. They will no longer be able to enjoy the status that is offered to them as part of the opposition to the government. They will no longer be afforded shadow ministries, the larger salary of shadow ministers and the extra staffing that comes with it.

I suspect that on this occasion, the opportunity for more power and more money will automatically resolve any notion that the Nationals may entertain of going it alone. While the federal LNP remain cosy with the Liberal opposition for that very reason - there is not much chance of the Nationals gaining numbers outside of going to the next election as one party and spruiking outside of their safe regional seats in the hope of picking off and picking up a few Liberal seats. The Liberals of course could do the same thing - but there is always the chance of them both being picked off by an Independent or a Teal who is running on a more effective grassroots community-values campaign.

Personally, I think given the coalition’s current status and their proven inability to read their own electorates - it is doubtful that they will remain separated for too long.

It is also doubtful that given their current trajectory, the Liberal infighting between moderate and hard-right conservatives, the Jacinta Price hard-right Advance wildcard and the possibility of Tim Wilson tone-deaf superannuation strategy - that the Coalition even reunited will see another term in government for at least six years.

For that I am extremely grateful.

Credit to the abc and the Guardian Australia.

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